In case you missed it.
I am late on this, but it’s been a hectic couple of weeks.
There are several good links on the DB issues that can be found on the web so I won’t rehash them here.
What’s most interesting to me in all of this is the Italian banking system is…questionable at best, DB is levered at an unsustainable level, and market indices are still bouncing around all time highs.
Maybe the tail risk isn’t what it seems at first glance, or maybe it isn’t priced in.
There is a paper I will share, once I get to a computer, on the math behind the statistics you see cited in regards to the US election.
The same question could be asked there as what is given above? Is a Trump presidency priced in? Does Mr. Market even care?
It is difficult to get a gauge on at this point and I won’t pretend to know the answer.
Bring the volatility!
Best to your investing