Thursday reads; GILD Presentation; Market Thoughts

Thursday Reads

I read far and wide to build a base case for broader market movements. I am on the lookout for an opportunity similar to the oil and gas situation a year ago today. I said commodities was the trade of the year last year, but I don’t have any sort of conviction at the moment for a really great opportunity for this year.

I post the Trader links below to add another arrow to the investing quiver.


GILD at these levels looks like a great very long term play. 5 second elevator pitch is, great positioning for big time M&A activity this year, a strong existing pipeline, and a probable dividend hike with a reduction in buybacks. The Trump policy wildcard is the unknown. I am inclined to ignore Trumps words on drug pricing and wait for a defined action.

An article I can no longer find, put it well “Take Trump seriously, but not literally”.

Trump took the sector lower yesterday. To me current levels and lower has to be a buy for GILD.

GILD JP Morgan Presentation

AAII investor sentiment 43/29/27 Bull/Neut/Bear

The “Trump Trade” is still Bullish in sentiment. Make of that what you will. My cash position continues to be used when IV spikes on a liquid security. For now I wait to see what happens in the coming days up/down/or sideways. Generally it helps to have some sort of directional bias when writing options, and I have no conviction either way.

I have minimal exposure beyond core very long term holds so I would not be opposed to a market selloff and a big spike to the VIX, but I have no reason to think that will happen.

Jan 10 update EW

Jan 11 EW update TW

OEW Wednesday Update

 

 

 

 

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